Robes Don't Grow On Trees
by iwright
Summary: Feeding and clothing Wizarding Britain - Background information for my fanfic, which will come into play in later chapters.


This is probably of no interest to anyone but myself, but I need it for my fanfic. My OC has a background in logistics, so once he gets over the excitement of working in the Wizarding world he's going to go digging into questions of how Wizarding Britain feeds itself and where they get their shoes. I don't need exact numbers, and my crude estimates probably bear no relation to real-world logistics, but unlike J. K. Rowling I do want consistent numbers to work with (Seriously Jo, I love your books but for your sake I hope someone else is in charge of your household finances). The numbers I'm creating here are a baseline only, and as I work them into my story I can fudge the details (See the TV Tropes entry: A Wizard Did It) to make the numbers appear to work.

People who know how shipping companies actually work in the real world will no doubt be able to come up with better numbers than I can. They will probably also be horrified by some of the assumptions and estimates I make here. Those people should ignore this essay and go read something more interesting.

0) BASIC ASSUMPTIONS

First of all, I'm using a very high estimate for the population of Wizarding Britain: As of 1992 there were about 15000 magically-talented humans. As of 2017, the year my fanfic is set in, there are about 20000. This estimate includes everyone who could be remotely described as 'magic', including the caretaker Filch and Harry Potter's old baysitter Mrs. Figg.

About 6700 wizards and witches live in Total Seclusion, having no contact at all with outsiders (Muggles). They live in Hogsmeade and do business there or in Diagon Alley, or they live in an area like Godric's Hollow and do business in Hogsmeade or Diagon Alley.

Another 6700 wizards and witches live in Partial Seclusion, much the way Harry Potter's aprents did. They live in an area like Godric's Hollow or Ottery St. Catchpole and have some Muggle neighbours or acquaintances, but live most of their life around other Talented people.

The final 6600 are Integrated into Muggle life, although they keep their magical abilities a secret.

I) FOOD

NASA estimates that people consume .62 kg of water and 3.52 kg of water and produce 3.98 kg of waste per day. I'm going to ignore water consumption and waste production, assuming that Diagon Alley, Hogsmeade, and similar places have municipal water supplies of some sort. I'm also going to round that .62 kg up to 1 kg of food per day and assume that this represents grains, fish and meat, dry tea and coffee, spices and oils, sugar, salt and pepper, and other things it would be difficult for wizards and witches to grow for themselves.

Places like Hogsmeade, Ottery St. Catchpole, Godric's Hollow, and others all probably produce fruits, vegetables, and nuts for Wizarding consumption. But for the most part wizards and witches live in urban areas, and whatever orchards or fields are controlled by Wizarding interests are used to produce wood for wands and broomsticks or grow magical plants that can't be grown as Muggle crops. Wizarding shops import their food from Muggle suppliers.

Those in Total Seclusion get 100% of their food from Wizarding shops: 6700 kg of food per day.

Those in Partial Seclusion get 50% of their food from Wizarding shops: 3350 kg of food per day.

Those Integrated into Muggle society get 12.5% of their food from Wizarding shops (Mostly in the form of pub-food at the Leaky Cauldron, restaurant meals in Diagon Alley or Hogsmeade, or gifts from magical relatives): 825 kg of food per day.

Wizarding Britain imports 10875 kg of food per day, rounded up to 11 tonnes (11000 kg), or 4015 tonnes per year.

II) GOODS

After fifteen minutes of internet research, drawing on such reliable sources as Wikipedia and the Guardian, I have concluded that modern Muggle Britons consume 30 tonnes of Stuff per year per person. People with an actual background in logistics may now feel free to scream in rage and pound their heads on their desks, but that's the number I'm going to work from.

Wizards and witches seem to consume more services (Spells) than stuff, and have greater opportunity to repair or recycle their goods (Magical mending), and I've already calculated how much food they import in section I. So I'm going to round that 30 tonnes down to 20 tonnes per year per person.

Some stuff is Muggle in origin, with Wizarding brand labels and a basic Charm or two slapped on it. How much Wizard versus Muggle stuff do wizards and witches consume?

Assumptions: Muggle-produced goods are _cheap_, thanks to economies of scale and Muggle mass production. Wizarding-produced goods tend to be specialized: Broomsticks, wands, Charmed robes, etc.

Those in Total Seclusion consume 80% stuff of Wizarding origin, 20% stuff of Muggle origin. 80% of 6700 x 20 tonnes = 107200 tonnes Wizarding goods. 20% of 6700 x 20 tonnes = 26800 tonnes Muggle goods.

Those in Partial Seclusion consume 40% stuff of Wizarding origin, 60% stuff of Muggle origin. 40% of 6700 x 20 tonnes = 53600 tonnes Wizarding goods. 60% of 6700 x 20 tonnes = 80400 tonnes Muggle goods.

Those Integrated into the surrounding communities consume 0% stuff of Wizarding origins. This isn't exactly true - They probably buy small toys for their kids in Weasley's Wizarding Wheezes, or purchase the Prophet or Quibbler from time to time. But for the most part they buy Muggle goods, and consume very few Wizarding items. And the Muggle goods that they buy are bought from Muggle shops and stay in the Muggle world.

Wizarding Britain produces 160800 tonnes of goods per year, and imports 107200 tonnes of Muggle-made goods per year.

III) WIZARDING GOODS

It's heavily implied throughout the series that most enchanted items lose their power through time and use. The exceptions seem to be exceptionally well-made items (Such as the Hallows) or semi-sentient items (Wands, the Sorting Hat). Wizarding goods most likely come in three flavours: Single-use items (Most things from Weasley's Wizarding Wheezes), charged items with a limited number of uses (Again, most goods from WWW), or permanent items that need periodic re-enchantment (Wizarding household appliances, brooms, Wizarding 'wireless' radios, etc.).

With only 20000 people (At the absolute highest. 10000 seems to be the more common estimate) the Wizarding world doesn't manufacture parts. Instead it imports Muggle parts and supplies, enchants those parts in Wizarding workshops, and then uses them to make finished goods in other workshops. Wizarding Britain produces 160800 tonnes of Wizarding goods per year, which means it imports a significant tonnage of parts and raw materials.

Wands, broomsticks, semi-sentient monstrous books, Time-Turners, and other highly magical items probably require special materials. Cloaks, robes, ordinary watches, and other daily-use items use ordinary materials. Of those 160800 tonnes of Wizarding goods, 80% are made with ordinary Muggle materials. So Wizarding Britain imports 128640 tonnes per year of machine parts, chemicals, paper, textiles, etc. for its workshops.

These materials are brought in through a variety of sources. The Ministry probably owns a shipping company or two, the goblins likely have their own import firms, and the Malfoys are so desperate to appear Upper Class that you just know they're a family of shopkeepers. Likely a number of Pureblood families make their money importing goods into the Wizarding world.

IV) MUGGLE GOODS

Wizarding Britain imports 107200 tonnes of Muggle goods per year. The easiest way to do this would be for the goblins or wealthy Wizarding families to own Pound Shops (Dollar Stores to the American audience, Toonie Stores to Canadians, probably called Sickle Shops among wizards even if nothing there costs a Sickle). Goods go into the Pound Shops, are redistributed among the Sickle Shops, and the owners cook the books so the Sickle Shop sales appear on the Pound Shop ledger sheet.

The most likely items for import are tools, clothes, cutlery and dishes, handbags and accessories, and other similar mundane items. Higher end Wizarding shops enchant their goods. Lower end shops leave that to the customer.

V) SHIPPING

Wizarding Britain imports 239855 tonnes per year (And has 0 exports. Talk about your trade imbalances). This includes parts and raw materials, food, and finished goods. How are these goods shipped from the Muggle world to the Wizarding world?

Not everyone can Apparate, or there would be no need for Side-Along Apparation or the Knight Bus. The only people we see manufacturing Portkeys are adults or advanced students, which seems to place Portus as a NEWT-level spell similar to Apparation in complexity. The Floo Network doesn't reach everywhere, or again there would be no need for the Knight Bus. And the Floo Network seems to have a size-limit, since even children are warned to keep their elbows close in when using the Floo.

We can rule out Apparation as requiring a specialist 'driver'. It may be used by couriers for time-sensitive materials or other special deliveries, but not for general shipping. It also seems likely that Apparation has a mass or volume limit, since we don't hear of a single wizard transporting a dozen or more other people.

Portkeys are enchanted items that activate when a person touches the item. It's unlikely that animals can activate the Portkey, otherwise leaving a Portkey in a public area (Which seems to be common practice) would result in a lot of curious foxes or ravens being popped from one end of the country to another - And leaving the wizard or witch that Portkey was intended for in the lurch. And we only ever see or hear of a Portkey transporting people. Like most of the transportation spells we see in the Harry Potter stories, it seems to be intended to move individuals or small groups rather than crates.

The Floo Network seems to have a volume limit, but it can't be too restrictive because we know that the older Weasley boys use it. None of them are obese, but they are tall and Charlie at least works in a physically demanding job. We see other adult wizards and witches use it without risk as well. A maximum capacity of about 100 kilograms/16 stone seems reasonable. Bodybuilders, giants, and the obese are out of luck, but most people can safely use the Floo Network. The problem with using Floos for shipping is that it requires someone to travel along with the goods - A porter or courier, probably carrying no more than 30 kilograms per trip.

The Knight Bus and Hogwarts Express give us our best guide to working out the Wizarding transportation network.

The Knight Bus is enchanted to travel at high speeds, be ignored by other drivers, and avoid collisions. This combination of enchantments on a large object probably requires one or more Charms specialists working as magical mechanics. The Knight Bus is maintained by the Ministry of Magic, while the goblin-controlled and wizard-owned import companies keep their own fleets for their warehouses and Sickle Shops.

The Hogwarts Express would seem to be a highly _OBVIOUS_ means of transportation. It may well be enchanted to seem uninteresting to Muggles, but it still requires tracks and those tracks need to be empty. The simplest way to arrange this is to say that the Hogwarts Express appears on the British railway schedule as a tourist-commisioned passenger train, something like the excursions offered by the real-world Railway Touring Co or similar companies.

A light lorry ('Truck', to those of us speaking modern English) of the type that could be easily ignored by Muggles can haul about 3.5 tonnes. Larger vehicles attract more attention and require more complex Charms to hide. Smaller vehicles require either more advanced undetectable extensions or larger fleets, in either case increasing shipping costs.

We know Hogsmeade has a rail station, but we also know the station itself is small and the Ministry tries to disguise the trains as tourist excursions. So we won't see trains of 10+ 20-tonne goods cars (Freight cars) pulling into the Hogsmeade Station. 4-5 cars plus the locomotive are more likely, with the cars having a capacity of about 10 tonnes unenhanced.

The Undetectable Extension Charm is useful. Not only does it allow a space to hold more objects than it normally would, it seems to mask the mass of those objects from the outside world. We're never told how far an Undetectable Extension Charm can extend a space, so for my purposes I'm going to say it can double the space's interior dimensions - Which allows it to carry eight times more mass, thanks to the cube root law. More advanced spellcasters can probably enlarge the space even further, but the typical magical mechanic prefers tow work with a nice simple doubling of space.

239855 tonnes of goods per year includes 4015 tonnes of food. That food is probably shipped daily by lorry, at 11 tonnes per day. With a cargo capacity of 3.5 tonnes per lorry that means there are 3 vehicles in the daily fleet. The food lorries don't need Undetectable Extension Charms, but they will need the same Charms that allow the Knight Bus to travel at high speeds without colliding with Muggle vehicles or attracting police attention. There are probably 3 full-time drivers weekdays and 3-4 part-time drivers weekends and holidays, plus an equal number of porters to load and unload the lorries (Why don't the drivers do it? Because if the driver injures themselves lifting boxes the rest of the cargo ain't going nowhere, that's why.).

Daily food delivery = Fleet of 4 vehicles, 3 FT drivers, 3 PT drivers, 3 FT porters/labourers, 3 PT porters/labourers.

That leaves 235840 tonnes per year to be shipped by other means. Interestingly, trains are not the most likely method. I initially thought they'd be the main method of shipping, but they can't be more than a secondary method. The Wizarding population is just too spread out for trains. Even Hogsmeade only accounts for about a third of the population living in Total Seclusion: Hogsmeade receives about 40200 tonnes of goods per year, and a goods train can haul about 320-400 tonnes fully loaded. Assuming the average train is 4 goods cars and one passenger car, Hogsmeade sees 125 trains a year or 10 a month plus 5 seasonal trains. Which might sound like a lot, but a Muggle village receives a constant stream of daily shipments by light and heavy lorry, train, and mail lorry. Hogsmeade Station only sees one train every three days.

A train, even a magical one, requires hostlers, porters and labourers, mechanics, engineers, and clerks. It's hard to estimate the number of people required to maintain a magical train, but the _minimum_ would seem to be 1 engineer, 1 mechanic, 2 hostlers, and 30 porters and labourers per train. At a minimum each train employs 34-35 people. Moving mass requires a lot of effort, and even with mechanical assistance (In the Muggle world) or magic that works out to a lot of people. The good news is that the same mechanics, porters, labourers, etc. who worked on the train at one end can Floo over to the other station. Load and inspect the train in King's Cross, unload and inspect the train in Hogsmeade. In an eight-hour workday the average railway employee probably works in two or three seperate locations. On the other hand you can't make your crews work too many hours or too many shifts, because there aren't enough Obliviation spells in the world to hide a trainwreck in the middle of England or Scotland.

125 trains per year = 80+ engineers, 80+ mechanics, 160+ hostlers, 2400+ porters and labourers.

The remaining 195640 tonnes are shipped by a fleet of lorries with Undetectable Extension Charms, giving them a capacity of 28 tonnes. I assumed that the food shipments have a dedicated fleet because food needs to be shipped daily and it's one of the areas where you need redundancy in the system. Non-perishable goods require less redundancy, so each lorry in the goods fleet will make 4 shipments in a day and if something goes wrong then a Sickle Shop just won't get its delivery of cheap trinkets that day. 195640 tonnes per year / 28 tonnes per lorry = 6987 lorry trips per year. 6987 trips per year / 245 workdays per year (Holidays, weekends, etc.) = 29 trips per workday. 29 trips per year / 4 trips per day per lorry = 7 lorries, plus 2 for maintenance and emergencies = 9 lorries.

The food lorries only make one trip per day, and there are 3 FT drivers, 3 PT drivers, 3 FT porters/labourers, 3 PT porters/labourers. Those same people can work in the goods fleet, leaving room for another 4 FT drivers and 4 FT porters/labourers. This gives us a total vehicle pool of 13 lorries, 7 FT drivers, 7 FT porters/labourers, 3 PT drivers, and 3 PT porters/labourers.

VI) PEOPLE

Minimum railway employees = 80+ engineers, 80+ mechanics, 160+ hostlers, 2400+ porters and labourers.

Minimum lorry fleet employees = 7 FT drivers, 7 FT porters/labourers, 3 PT drivers, and 3 PT porters/labourers.

Those engineers, mechanics, hostlers, and drivers are probably guys like Stan Shunpike. They've got one or two OWLs, but for the most part their jobs are pretty similar to their Muggle counterparts. They operate magical equipment but don't cast a lot of spells (The hostlers are probably very good at levitation spells though). The porters and labourers are people like Argus Filch. Squibs with no ability to cast spells, but who have found employment in the Wizarding world.

VII) CONCLUSION

There are at least 2740 people working in the Wizarding transportation sector, not including supervisors and clerks. That also doesn't include couriers, Portkey manufacturers, or people skilled in Apparation who might work as 'taxicab drivers'. If we include managers, supervisors, couriers, etc. then we can probably safely round that up to 3000 people, or about 15% of Wizarding Britain's population. 2400+ of those people are Squibs (Or very nearly so, as Neville Longbottom appeared to be in book one), working out of sight and out of mind of their wizard families.

In the real world the Transportation Sector includes the aerospace and defence industry, automotive industry (Including car sales), logistics, and shipbuilding and industrial marine industry. For 15% of the Wizarding population to be employed in this sector probably isn't too far from the mark.


End file.
